"Fighting Al-Shabaab: What Next After Exit of ATMIS"

Since 2022, the government of President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud has implemented a comprehensive strategy to drain the swamps of violent extremism in Somalia, effectively putting the al-Shabaab Islamist group on the backfoot. But the on-going drawdown of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) ahead of its final exit by December 2024 is creating a vacuum that militia is exploiting to stage a comeback. In the absence of a seamless transition to the proposed African Union Stabilization Support Mission (AUSSOM) in January 2025 and emerging geopolitical rivalries by troops contributing African power risks emboldening and giving a new lease of life to the Islamist group

Somalia has been battling violent extremist group al-Shabaab for the last 15 years, registering some successes and bad blows in its wake. Over the years, the government of the Federal Republic of Somalia has worked hand-in-hand with the various formats of the African Union forces to push back on the militants. The latest format of those forces are the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) which is expected to exit the stage in December following the end of the mandate.

There have been some agreements on the next force to take over, known formally as the African Union Stabilisation Support Mission (AUSSOM). Although the presumptive start times are in January 2025, the actual troop contributors are yet to be known because discussions are still going on. However, Egypt has been a forerunner, pledging troops and sending arms already in preparation for taking part in AUSSOM.